Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-08-01.
Estimate momentum
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $49.37 | $44.22 | $44.67 | $44.11 | -0.2% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $53.17 | $46.60 | $47.17 | $48.47 | +4.0% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $55.01bn | $53.89bn | $53.88bn | $53.71bn | -0.3% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $56.10bn | $54.08bn | $54.15bn | $53.75bn | -0.6% |
Capex steps down and consensus free cash flow grows 29% then 23% while EBITDA declines
Consensus revenue sits in a roughly 1% band across FY2026-FY2029, and EBITDA is lower in each of FY2026, FY2027 and FY2028 before stabilizing in FY2029. Normalized EPS still rises through FY2028 on that flat-to-lower EBITDA base. Driver-level detail behind capex sits on the Visible Alpha tab.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $54.91bn | $54.26bn | $53.71bn | $53.75bn | $54.00bn | — | 19 | $54.84bn / $55.05bn |
| EBITDA | $22.52bn | $22.25bn | $21.90bn | $21.80bn | $22.22bn | — | 19 | $21.53bn / $22.67bn |
| Capital expenditure | -$11.50bn | -$11.47bn | -$9.54bn | -$8.17bn | -$8.31bn | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $4.99bn | $4.70bn | $6.08bn | $7.48bn | $7.10bn | — | — | — |
| Net debt | $95.24bn | $92.40bn | $89.19bn | $85.11bn | $81.31bn | — | — | — |
Revenue has landed within 1% of consensus for eight straight quarters; EPS has swung from -10.5% to +10.2%
Normalized EPS has alternated miss and beat across the last four prints at -10.5%, +5.2%, -9.0% and +2.4%, with no sustained streak in either direction. The largest revenue surprise in the window was +0.98% and the smallest was +0.02%.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 2 consecutive beats; EPS (normalized): 1 consecutive beat.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 | Revenue | $13.51bn | $13.53bn | +0.1% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $10.41 | $10.66 | +2.4% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $13.54bn | $13.60bn | +0.4% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $10.07 | $9.17 | -9.0% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $13.73bn | $13.60bn | -1.0% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $9.83 | $10.34 | +5.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $13.75bn | $13.67bn | -0.6% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $9.32 | $8.34 | -10.5% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $13.76bn | $13.77bn | +0.0% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $9.77 | $9.18 | -6.1% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $13.67bn | $13.73bn | +0.5% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $8.59 | $8.42 | -2.0% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $13.88bn | $13.93bn | +0.3% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $9.17 | $10.10 | +10.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $13.66bn | $13.79bn | +1.0% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $8.49 | $8.82 | +3.9% | Beat |
Analysts converge on FY2028 revenue but split on FY2028 EPS, a 34.21-to-59.33 range on nine estimates
Thirteen analysts put FY2028 revenue in a band a few percent wide; nine put FY2028 normalized EPS between 34.21 and 59.33. FY2028 EBITDA and FY2027 GAAP net income carry similarly wide bands on thirteen estimates each.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | FY2028E | $53.75bn | $52.20bn–$55.53bn | 6.2% | 13 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | $48.47 | $34.21–$59.33 | 51.8% | 9 |
| EBITDA | FY2028E | $21.80bn | $19.43bn–$23.06bn | 16.7% | 13 |
| Net income (GAAP) | FY2027E | $4.97bn | $4.11bn–$6.25bn | 43.2% | 13 |
Street snapshot
The target mean of 184.41 sits well above the median of 150, so the average is being pulled by a small number of high targets. The mix is five buys, eleven holds, two underperforms and three sells, plus one no-opinion.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 5, Outperform 0, Hold 11, Underperform 2, Sell 3 | 21 |
| Consensus score | 2.90 | 21 |
| Target price | mean $184.4; median $150.0; high $380.0; low $101.0 | 17 |
FY2029 rests on three to five estimates
FY2029 revenue and normalized EPS carry five estimates each, EBITDA four and GAAP net income three, against sixteen to nineteen for FY2025. The FY2029 normalized EPS range of 27.52 to 64.15 is drawn from those five estimates.